The Maze of 2024: Will BJP Have an Upper Hand Or Will It Struggle In Assembly Elections?
It is often said that nothing is permanent in politics; the charm of a single individual doesn't last forever. With this in mind, leaders from the ruling and opposition parties are calculating future possibilities. It has been an important day in Delhi for meetings and discussions. At the NITI Aayog meeting, there was deliberation on the goal of making India a developed nation by 2047. Meanwhile, BJP strategists are most concerned about the upcoming assembly elections in four states: Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand, and Jammu & Kashmir. After the Lok Sabha election results, BJP leaders are uncertain about the public sentiment in these four states. Leaders of the India alliance believe that if BJP is prevented from coming to power in these states, the world's largest party could begin to decline rapidly. Why are BJP stalwarts so anxious about the Maharashtra assembly elections?
In Haryana, a leadership change experiment was evident in the Lok Sabha elections, but what will happen in the assembly elections? In the electoral arena of Haryana, who will emerge as the vote splitter between BJP and Congress? Will BJP's exile from power in Jharkhand end, or will Hemant Soren manage to retain power riding on a wave of sympathy? Who has the upper hand in Jammu & Kashmir? How much will the political mood of the country change with the results of these four states in 2024?
Who Has the Upper Hand in the Assembly Elections?
In the Mahabharata, there is a mention of Acharya Dronacharya's Chakravyuh, in which Abhimanyu entered by breaking the first door. Other warriors of his team got stuck at the first door, and Abhimanyu was killed while breaking through the seventh door. If we consider electoral politics as a Chakravyuh, there are currently four major doors in 2024—the outcomes of which will determine the direction of the country's politics. During the campaign in April-May, most BJP leaders loudly proclaimed, "This time, 400 seats!" But in the results announced on June 4, BJP's seat count in the Lok Sabha dropped from 303 to 240. This means that Prime Minister Modi will have to rely on coalition partners to govern for the next five years. The opposition in both the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha is now more vocal than before.
In the recent budget presented by Nirmala Sitharaman, special favors were shown to Andhra Pradesh and Bihar, which are being seen as efforts to keep coalition partners TDP and JDU on board. The question now is how much the political map of the country will change by the time 2024 flips the calendar? Will BJP become stronger or weaker? Let's first talk about Maharashtra. In terms of the Lok Sabha elections, Congress emerged as the largest party with 13 seats in Maharashtra, which has 48 seats in total. Congress had an alliance with NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction). This alliance secured 31 seats in the Lok Sabha, while BJP only got 9, and its ally Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) got 7 seats. Ajit Pawar's NCP secured just one seat. If the same voting pattern continues in the Maharashtra assembly elections scheduled for October-November, BJP might lose another state.
All Is Not Well in Maharashtra Politics
During the Lok Sabha elections, senior BJP leaders argued that there was a "triple engine" government running smoothly in Maharashtra, with no friction or tension. However, behind the scenes, things do not seem to be entirely well. There is a cold war over the allocation of candidates for Maharashtra's 288 seats. Reports suggest that BJP wants to field candidates in 160 seats, while the Shinde faction of Shiv Sena is eyeing 100 seats. Ajit Pawar's faction is also claiming 80 seats. The question also arises: under whose leadership will the Mahayuti (grand alliance) contest the elections? Should the election be fought with Eknath Shinde as the face, and later the person with the most seats becomes the Chief Minister? There is also speculation about who in the Mahayuti is now considered redundant. These uncertainties are keeping BJP strategists awake at night.
AAP-JJP Could Upset Congress-BJP Equation in Haryana
Similarly, in Haryana, BJP faced a major setback during the Lok Sabha elections. Before the Lok Sabha elections, Naib Singh Saini was sworn in as the Chief Minister, replacing Manohar Lal, who had been leading the state for nearly nine years. In 2019, BJP had swept all 10 seats in Haryana, but in 2024, it was reduced to five. Congress secured five seats. In the Haryana assembly elections, there is a direct fight between Congress and BJP. However, Dushyant Chautala's JJP and Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party could upset the electoral equation for both BJP and Congress in many seats. Arvind Kejriwal's wife, Sunita Kejriwal, has taken charge of the campaign in Haryana.
Farmers and Agniveer: Key Issues in Haryana Elections
Farmers and the Agniveer scheme are expected to be key issues in the Haryana assembly elections. Congress aims to corner the state's BJP government on these issues. Given the current political landscape, there is also the possibility of a hung assembly in Haryana. In such a situation, BJP and JJP might join hands again. The India alliance will make every effort to prevent BJP from gaining power in Haryana at any cost. While BJP faces the challenge of retaining power in Maharashtra and Haryana, it has the opportunity to make a comeback in Jharkhand. Currently, Hemant Soren runs the government in Jharkhand with the support of Congress. He recently served five months in jail on charges of a land scam. Soren has a strong hold on the state's tribal voters, who see themselves as victims of BJP's retaliatory politics. BJP has its eyes set on the Chief Minister's seat in Ranchi and is raising the issue of corruption against Soren with full force.
Political Turbulence in Jharkhand
Corruption, poverty, inflation, unemployment, and migration for work have been major issues in Jharkhand. The state's tribal voters play a crucial role in determining who holds the keys to power. BJP has been working for a long time to win over the tribal vote bank in Jharkhand. RSS volunteers have been working in remote areas of Jharkhand to improve people's lives, which has benefited BJP in elections. However, the big question is whether BJP's path to a return to power in Jharkhand will be easy, given Hemant Soren's aggressive stance against BJP and his portrayal of himself as a victim of political vendetta after being released on bail. The next concern for BJP strategists is Jammu & Kashmir. The Supreme Court has directed the Election Commission to conduct elections in Jammu & Kashmir by September 30. Since the abrogation of Article 370, the central government has been governing Jammu & Kashmir through the Lieutenant Governor. BJP has tried to win the hearts of the people of Jammu & Kashmir through development and change. However, BJP strategists are uncertain about whom the people of Jammu & Kashmir will choose as their leader in the assembly elections.
Elections in Jammu & Kashmir
In terms of vote share during the Lok Sabha elections, BJP received the most votes in Jammu & Kashmir, followed by the National Conference. Congress's vote share also increased significantly. BJP knows that while national issues dominate Lok Sabha elections, regional and local issues are more significant in assembly elections. Hence, BJP leaders are worried about a possible reversal of fortunes in Jammu & Kashmir. Similarly, there is uncertainty regarding Jharkhand, Haryana, and Maharashtra. If the results in these four states do not favor BJP, the opposition's political influence in the country will increase, and the perception that defeating BJP is impossible will weaken. Conversely, if BJP manages to win in all four states, it will be seen as a sign that the Modi brand still has strength and that the entire country stands with Modi's Mission 2047.
