Exit Polls 2024: Analyzing The Accuracy Of Predictions In The 2019 And 2014 Elections

The eagerly anticipated exit poll predictions for 2024 will begin to be released after 6:30 PM today, following the end of the embargo period set by the Election Commission. Alongside the Lok Sabha elections, assembly elections took place in Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, and Sikkim. Exit polls, which are based on voters' responses as they leave the polling stations, are conducted by agencies such as Axis My India, Today's Chanakya, IPSOS, CVoter, and CSDS.

Exit poll predictions should never be taken at face value, as there is always the possibility of errors. There have been numerous instances in recent years where exit polls have been inaccurate. However, in both 2019 and 2014, the exit poll predictions successfully captured the national sentiment.

In 2014, the BJP-led NDA achieved a landslide victory that many exit polls failed to fully anticipate, though they did predict an NDA win. The significant margin of victory was underestimated. On average, eight exit polls projected 283 seats for the NDA and 105 seats for the UPA. In reality, the NDA secured 336 seats, with the BJP alone winning 282 seats. The UPA managed only 60 seats, with Congress obtaining 44 of them.

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In 2019, exit polls, on average, predicted that the NDA would secure 306 seats and the UPA 120 seats. However, these predictions fell short of the actual results, as the NDA won 352 seats, with the BJP securing 303. The UPA ended up with 93 seats, and Congress obtained 52 of them.

The 2024 election is a contest between the NDA and the newly formed opposition alliance, INDIA. In preparation for the election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set an ambitious goal for the NDA, aiming for "400 plus" seats, with the BJP alone targeting over 370 seats.

The Congress has announced that it will not participate in exit poll debates on television channels, aiming to avoid fueling speculation and contributing to a ratings-driven slugfest.

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