Jammu-Kashmir Assembly Election 2024: Will Abrogation Of Article 370 Help BJP?

Will BJP reap rich dividends of abrogating Article 370 and abolishing the special status of Jammu and Kashmir? The party has been harping on this issue for decades as one of its main electoral and political planks. When Home Minister Amit Shah announced the abrogation on August 5, 2019, the ruling BJP was confident of taking its political gains across the country and particularly in Jammu and Kashmir.

Abrogation of Article 370: Will BJP Gain In Election?

Secondly, the government argued that Article 370 has been the main stumbling block in the integration of the state. Five years down the line when the election for the state assembly has been announced, the question reached the door of the saffron party. Will BJP gain in this election?

Delimitation: Will It Favour BJP?

Similarly the union government batted for delimitation of Jammu-Kashmir arguing that the demography of the state has been changed and it should reflect in the assembly and parliamentary elections. It was opposed by the state’s political parties who apprehended that the assembly and parliamentary seats might be tweaked in a way so that the Muslim majority may suffer and their representation may not reflect the ground realities.

Despite all kinds of protests, the Election Commission of India carried out the arduous exercise of delimitation. In the final delimitation report released on May 5, 2022, six seats were added to Jammu division and one seat was added to Kashmir division. Now, Jammu-Kashmir assembly has 90 seats.

Will BJP Ride On Wave Of Abrogation?

The saffron party has a good hold in the Hindu-majority Jammu division and it may expect to increases its number of seats. Riding on the wave of abrogation of Article 370, the ruling party hopes to get the bigger share of the moolah.

The BJP has been harping on the reported improved law and order situation of Jammu-Kashmir and taken the credit for it. But no hard core Hindutva party supporter can deny that civilians as well members of the security forces have been targeted. Innocent Kashmiri Pandits too have been killed in terrorist attacks. How will the BJP counter it? The people who have been its core base, are also those who have bored the brunt of the terrorist attacks.

BJP At Receiving End Of Hindu’s Ire?

Political observers also believe that the BJP may be at the receiving end of the ire of Hindus in the state. Article 35 A was revoked along with Article 370. Added to the constitution by then President Rajendra Prasad on the advice of then Prime Minister Jawahar Lal Nehru in 1954, it granted special rights and privileges to permanent residents of Jammu-Kashmir.

Now, with the abolition of this article, the privileges in state government jobs, businesses and other areas, enjoyed by Hindus, too have gone. So, a Hindu from Jammu-Kashmir, like his Muslim brethren, will not be able to enjoy those privileges. Will Hindus still vote for the BJP like before or will there be a shift?

Will Ram Madhav Repeat 2016?

The central leadership of the saffron party has appointed General Secretary Ram Madhav as the election in-charge of Jammu-Kashmir. Ram Madhav is the person who cobbled a front with People’s Democratic Party in 2016. Mehbooba Mufti became the 9th Chief Minister of Jammu-Kashmir on April 4, 2016 with the help of the ultra-nationalist party. However, the BJP pulled the rug from under her feet and she was forced to resign on June 19, 2018. It is clear that these two parties will not join hands this time, it may prove suicidal for both of them.

Uphill Task For BJP?

The BJP may face the most difficult challenge from the National Conference-Congress alliance. They have reached to a broad agreement on sharing seats, hiccups on certain seats continue and leaders of the two parties are most likely to meet soon to resolve the issue.

If media reports are to be believed, Ghulam Nabi Azad-led Democratic Progressive Azad Party is most likely to merge with the Congress Party, giving a fillip to the grand old party. If it happens, the BJP may find it more difficult.

A timespan of five years is not a long period on the annals of a state or a country, but enough water has flown down the Beas and the Sutlej rivers. Time will show how the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35 A has impacted the electoral politics of the state.