Jammu & Kashmir Assembly Election: Will Pakistan Accept Ground Realities or Continue Its Kashmir Obsession?
After the last man cast his vote in the free and fair and peaceful Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Election 2024, the most important question being asked to Pakistan, militants and those involved in the separatist movement may be: what next? After offering olive branches to India and watching the peaceful election, in which more than 60% of the electorates voted, will it accept the ground realities? Will Islamabad stop aiding and abetting terrorists based in India and giving haven to those living in Pakistan at least for the time being? Or as it manifested its Kashmir- obsession in the United Nations General Assembly recently, will it continue with its policy of ‘giving a thousand cuts to India’ under its ‘Operation Tupac’?
Pakistan Against Elections In Jammu-Kashmir
Pakistan has always rejected the parliamentary and assembly elections held in India and sometimes opposed and criticized it. Besides, terror attacks before the elections have been a common feature. The recently-held election was not an exception with multiple terror attacks and encounters and gun-battles in different places in Jammu and Kashmir.
Voters Turnout
What makes this election different from earlier ones is the voters’ turnout. While 60.16% of voters used their right of franchise in the first phase, the voters’ turnout in the second phase was 57%. The third phase registered a turnout of more than 65%.
‘Azadi’: No Issue In Kashmir
The Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Election 2024 is different from earlier ones also because the Kashmir issue was not an election issue. No party raised the demand for a referendum in Jammu and Kashmir according to the UN resolution. Separatist leader Engineer Rashid who has been languishing in Delhi’s Tihar jail on the charges of terror funding before being released on bail for election campaign, has not raked up this issue.
He emphasized on unemployment, price rise and lack of development in the Kashmir valley. The leader of the Awami Ittehad Party also said that he would take the voice of Jammu and Kashmir to New Delhi.
No Takers For Article 370
The abrogation of Article 370 too could not be an issue this election. Though the BJP and its leaders Amit Shah and PM Narendra Modi raised this issue in the Jammu division, they did not take up the issue in the Kashmir Valley.
Similarly, Congress skipped this subject, it rather raised the issue of statehood of Jammu and Kashmir. Engineer Rashid took up the issue of Article 370 and declared that he would support any party that reinstates the special status of the union territory, bringing back the controversial article.
Pakistan Offers Talks
Pakistan's government and its army offered to hold talks with India and improve relations. This was perceived by many as a strategic move by Islamabad to improve bilateral relations with India so that the trade ties are also boosted, giving relief to Pakistan's economy. Pakistan imposed unrealistic tariffs on Indian imports after the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. India retaliated and the bilateral trade came to a standstill practically.
Pakistan’s Strategy
The analysts believe Pakistan also wants to improve its image and send a positive message to the international community so that it can get loans and assistance from multilateral fora like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund and friendly countries like Turkiye and Saudi Arabia. It has extended its hands of friendship with this objective.
Why Is Pakistan Obsessed With Kashmir?
The political observers believe, that the overall Pakistan policies on Kashmir will remain the same, which Islamabad requires for its existence. An artificial country with its foundation in religion needs an enemy to harp upon so that the masses can be kept united in the country with deep divisions in its society on ethnic, linguistic and economic issues. Experts think Islamabad will always remain obsessed with Kashmir and will never quit this issue, come what may. Of course, it can have a temporary slowdown to suit its needs.
As the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Elections were held under this background, a thaw in the Indo-Pakistan relations surfaced, but it is destined to be temporary with no change it Pakistan’s Kashmir policy. Islamabad made this clear when Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif raked up the issue of Jammu and Kashmir in the UNGA meeting and slammed India, New Delhi hit it back using the right to reply.
Political analysts believe after a lull, Pakistan will once again return to the Kashmir issue, foment terrorism and aid terrorist organisations. It is only a matter of time.
