Explained: PM Modi’s Strategic Visit to Brunei- Bold Move Amid Rising Tensions In Indo-Pacific and South China Sea

At a time when the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific region have grabbed the attention of world leaders and defence experts like never before and tension over these two arrears is spiraling slowly and gradually, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Brunei has special significance. The visit occurred amid the US raking up the issue of maritime rights in the contentious area and its strategy to encircle Beijing. PM Modi’s visit may encourage stakeholders like Brunei, Japan and the Philippines and the US. However, China may be upset over the India-Brunei bonhomie.

China-Brunei Tension Over Spratly Islands

Spratly’s Islands is the bone of contention between Brunei and China. Named after the 19th-century British whaling captain Richard Spratly who sighted the islands in 1843, Spratly Islands are a disputed archipelago in the South China Sea. Lying on the coasts of the Philippines, Malaysia, and southern Vietnam, the archipelago has more than 45 islands and 100 reefs. It is such a contentious area and has such strategic significance that China, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam have their military presence there. Brunei has claimed an exclusive economic zone in the southeastern part of the Spratly Islands, which includes the uninhabited Louisa Reef.

China Changes Stand

China declared in 1932 that the Paracels Island, not the Spratlys was its southernmost territory. Brunei has a sigh of relief as it has claimed its sovereignty over the archipelago. However, China changed its policy in 1947 when ideclareded its rights over the Spratly. The China-Brunei dispute began with Beijing's claim and it is going till now.

Brunei-China Economic Ties

Unlike the Philippines, Brunei has maintained a silence over the South China Sea, but continues to keep its claim amid the growing turbulence of the disputed waters in recent years.  Despite the dispute over the archipelago, China and Brunei have improved economic relations with Beijing working on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects. China has also made investments in infrastructure, petrochemical facilities, and oil and gas exploration projects. Beijing has also constructed the Brunei-Guangxi Economic Corridor.

US Dominance In Indo-Pacific Region

As the China-US rivalry and the one-upmanship to dominate world affairs have escalated, Washington has put special emphasis on the Indo-Pacific area and the South China Sea. With its naval bases in Guam, Diego Garcia, the Philippines, and ports under its control in Hambantota (Sri Lanka), Gwadar (Pakistan), and many other areas under its influence in Seychelles, Mauritius and other places in African continents, China has taken the strategy of controlling the waters of Indo Pacific and Asia.

Will Brunei Be Used Against China

Brunei occupies a very significant place in the US strategy on the South China Sea. China claims almost the entire area and talks of the Nine-Dash Line, the imaginary line that surrounds the entire sea. Consequently, Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Singapore, and Brunei, all have tense relations with Beijing.

With the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, better known as the Quad, India is trying to assert itself in the region, of course with the help of the US. PM Narendra Modi’s visit to Brunei may set the ball rolling in the area and Bander Seri Begawan may come closer to New Delhi. With relations already improved with the Philippines, Singapore, Japan and Malaysia, India is in a position where it can move one step forward and take Brunei with it.

India-Brunei Defence Ties May Upset China

India-Brunei defence ties may also upset China. The navies and coast guards of both countries have visited each other several times in recent past. ICGS Sagar visited Brunei in March 2014. It was followed by INS Shakti in August 2014; INS Airavat in May 2016; INS Satpura in November 2017; and ICGS Shaunak in January 2019.

Besides, INS Jalashwa visited Brunei in May 2021, and INS Shivalik and INS Kadmatt visited Muara Port in August 2021 for PASSEX with Brunei. Bruneian ship KDB Darulaman participated in MILAN 2012 in the Andamans); and Royal Brunei Navy’s Ship KP 80 Daruttaqwa visited Mumbai in August 2014.

India Brunei Sign Defence MoU

Earlier India set up a Telemetry, Tracking, and Command station in Brunei in 2000. Though it tracks and monitors eastward launches of satellites and satellite launch vehicles, it can be used for defense purposes as well. New Delhi and Bander Seri Begawan also signed an MoU on defense in 2016, it was renewed in 2021.

Beijing has remained tight-lipped over PM Modi’s Brueni visit so far. Considering its economic relations with the island nation, China will not try to disrupt India-Brunei bonhomie now, but it will certainly get upset.